The following article is focused on investment opportunities but provides some insights into what is going on in the Caspian Sea. Although it focuses on the Turkmenistan reserves, remember that Baku has traditionally had a lot of oil.
The issue is money. If Turkmenistan oil and gas can be shipped to Europe where they will pay more for it, then China won’t get it cheap anymore. And, remember that if a pipeline runs through Turkmenistan and Afghanistan and Pakistan to the United States.
Remember too as to oil and profits. These oil companies makes as much profit by restricting the flow of oil (through lack of pipelines, stable country ports, etc.) as they do by simply extracting the oil and selling it. Also, be careful to ask where the United States gets its oil from. Before WWII we EXPORTED oil to places like Japan. We continue to export oil today to some extent.
If this seems complex, it doesn’t have to be. It’s just that we don’t get the information we need to put together the story.